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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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Two Solar Eruptions May Impact Messenger, STEREO A, STEREO B, Spitzer and Mars

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts.
This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification
##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-11-08T16:00:00Z
## Message ID: 20121108-AL-002

##Summary:

Two CMEs have been detected, the later one a more significant, O-type CME.

1) C-type CME detected by SOHO LASCO C2 / SOHO LASCO C3 / STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2. This CME is associated with an M1.7 class solar flare peaked at 2012-11-08T02:23Z from an east limb active region just rotating onto the visible disk.

Start time of the event: 2012-11-08T02:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~710 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 55 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 86/25 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

Activity ID: 2012-11-08T02:48:00-CME-001.

2) O-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2. This CME is related to the SEP event at STEREO-A (see notification 20121108-AL-001).

Start time of the event: 2012-11-08T11:09Z.

Estimated speed: ~1285 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 70 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 176/-17 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

Activity ID: 2012-11-08T11:09:00-CME-001.

Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may impact STEREO-A, STEREO-B, Mars, Spitzer and Messenger. Simulations of the CMEs indicate that the leading edges of respective CMEs will reach:
Messenger at 2012-11-09T02:25Z
Stereo A at 2012-11-10T10:34Z
Stereo B at 2012-11-11T11:50Z
Spitzer at 2012-11-10T21:59Z
Mars at 2012-11-12T16:14Z
(plus minus 7 hours).

Updates on these events will be provided when available.

Links to the movies of the modeled event:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121108_072500_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score):
S: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C: Common 500-1000 km/s
O: Occasional 1000-2000 km/s
R: Rare 2000-3000 km/s
ER: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center gsfc-swrcatmail [dot] nasa [dot] gov>

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