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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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Earth-directed C-type CME: Predicted Arrival November 12, May Cause Minor Geomagnetic Storm

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts.
This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )

## Message Type: Space Weather Notification
##
## Message Issue Date: 2012-11-09T20:09:00Z
## Message ID: 20121109-AL-001

## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO-A COR2 / STEREO-B COR2 / SOHO LASCO C3. Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at the NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact the Earth and Messenger. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach the Earth at about 2012-11-12T23:07Z, which may result in a minor geomagnetic storm (the estimated Kp is 2-5, please note this is a rough estimate). The leading edge of the CME is also estimated to reach Messenger at about 2012-11-10T16:10Z (plus minus 7 hours). Updates on this event will be provided when available.

CME parameters are:

Start time of the event: 2012-11-09T15:24Z.

Estimated speed: ~570 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 27 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -11/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Ecliptic coordinates.

Activity ID: 2012-11-09T15:24:00-CME-001.

Links to the movies of the modeled event:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-den-Stereo_...
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20121109_071800_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_...

## Notes:

C-type or Common CMEs have the speed of 500-1000 km/s (See CME typification at http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score).

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center gsfc-swrcatmail [dot] nasa [dot] gov>
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