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Weekly Summary for October 2 - October 8

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## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for October 2, 2013 - October 8, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-10-09T20:21:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-02T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-10-08T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131009-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this analysis period. There were four C-type CMEs, and one O-type CME (see list below). Of the Earth-directed CMEs, the CME starting at 2013-10-03T00:12Z possibly gave a minor glancing blow at Earth on 2013-10-07. The O-type CME with activity ID 2013-10-05T07:09:00-CME-001 arrived at STEREO B on 2013-10-08T05:00Z (see notification 20131005-AL-002).

Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=6 for the analysis week. There were two geomagnetic storm periods due to CME arrivals. Kp reached 6 (moderate) during the synoptic period 2013-10-02T03:00Z – 06:00Z due to the arrival of the CME with activity ID 2013-09-29T20:39:00-CME-001 at ACE near L1 on 2013-10-02T01:20Z (see weekly analysis 20131002-7D-001, notification 20131002-AL-001, 20131002-AL-003). Due to this arrival, a magnetopause crossing was predicted starting at 2013-10-02T02:47Z (see notification 20131002-AL-002). Later, Kp reached 5 (minor) during the synoptic periods 2013-10-08T18:00Z – 2013-10-09T03:00Z and 2013-10-09T06:00 – 09:00Z due an interplanetary shock arrival at ACE near L1 at 2013-10-08T19:42Z (see notification 20131008-AL-001), and a magnetopause crossing was predicted starting at 2013-10-08T21:53Z (see notification 20131008-AL-002). Currently it is unclear which CME is associated with this interplanetary shock, but possible candidates include the CME starting at 2013-10-06T14:39Z (see notification 20131006-AL-001) or the combined effects of the CMEs starting at 2013-10-04T19:18Z and 2013-10-05T07:09Z.

The >0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

The energetic proton flux of >10 MeV protons detected at GOES remained at elevated levels on 2013-10-02 through 2013-10-03 due to an ongoing SEP event which started at 2013-09-30T05:05Z (see weekly analysis 20131002-7D-001, notification 20130930-AL-003), but dropped below the threshold of 10 pfu around 2013-10-02T04:50Z. (This SEP event was associated with the CME with activity ID 2013-09-29T20:39:00-CME-001). The flux of 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-10-05T12:55Z, and is associated with the O-type CME with activity ID 2013-10-05T07:09:00-CME-001 (see list below). The flux of 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO B showed a slight increase on 2013-10-06, but remained below threshold levels.

Space weather impact:
Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this week, specifically during the two periods of SEP enhancement and geomagnetic storms. SEPs could impact spacecraft between STEREO A and Earth during 2013-09-30 through 2013-10-03, and spacecraft between STEREO A and STEREO B during 2013-10-05 through 2013-10-07. Spacecraft at the geosynchronous orbits may be exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions during the magnetopause crossings on 2013-10-02 and 2013-10-08, and spacecraft at GEO, MEO, polar and other orbits passing through or in the vicinity of the Earth’s ring current and auroral regions can be impacted during the geomagnetic storms starting on 2013-10-02 and 2013-10-08.

## Events:
Flares (M class and above):
None

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-03T00:12Z ~ 700 C -62/3 34 SOHO and STEREO B
2013-10-06T14:39Z ~ 790 C 6/-15 25 STEREO A and B

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-02T21:09Z ~ 530 C 102/35 45 SOHO and STEREO B
2013-10-05T07:09Z ~ 1000 O -139/-26 60 SOHO, STEREO A and B
2013-10-08T08:24Z ~ 530 C -100/26 27 SOHO, STEREO A and B

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-09T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-10-15T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the upcoming week. Active region 1865 has produced several CMEs and flares, and has the potential for more activity. The ongoing geomagnetic storm starting on 2013-10-08 is beginning to decay.

## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.