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Weekly Summary for October 9 - October 15

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## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for October 9, 2013 - October 15, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-10-16T20:21:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-09T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-10-15T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131016-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during this analysis period. There were four C-type CMEs and five M class flares (see lists below). The C type CME starting at 2013-10-11T07:24Z (ID 2013-10-11T07:07:00-CME-001) was associated with solar energetic particle event observed at STEREO A and B (see below). The CME was predicted to impact Messenger (2013-10-12T07:59Z), STEREO B (2013-10-14T09:50Z) and Spitzer (2013-10-14T00:33Z). The C-type CME starting at 2013-10-13T01:25 may impact the Earth around 2013-10-16T13:15 (plus minus 7 hours) and cause weak geomagnetic disturbance (Kp index 3-4).

Geomagnetic activity was at moderate levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=5 for the analysis week. There was a minor geomagnetic storm at the beginning of the analysis period due to CME arrival. Kp was 5 (minor) during the synoptic period 2013-10-09T06:00 – 09:00Z due to the arrival of CME observed by ACE at 2013-10-08T19:42Z (see notification 20131008-AL-001). Then Kp dropped to <=3 during the middle of the analysis week and later Kp reached level 4 during the synoptic periods 2013-10-14T18:00 – 21:00Z, 2013-10-15T00:00 – 06:00Z and 2013-10-16T00:00 – 03:00Z. This later elevation of geomagnetic activity is associated with the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream that arrived at ACE around 2013-10-14T08:00.

The > 0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

Solar energetic particle event was detected by STEREO A and STEREO B during the analysis period. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO A exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-10-11T08:17Z and the flux of 13-100 MeV protons at STEREO B exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-10-11T11:46Z (see notification 20131011-AL-001). This SEP event was associated with the CME with activity ID 2013-10-11T07:07:00-CME-001. By the end of the analysis period the particle flux dropped to nominal levels for both satellites.

Space weather impact:

Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been moderate this week, specifically during the two periods of SEP enhancement and geomagnetic storms.

## Events:
Flares (M class and above):
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2013-10-09 01:23:00 01:56:00 01:48:00 M2.8 S23E71 (1865)
2013-10-11 07:01:00 07:45:00 07:23:00 M1.5 N21E87 (1868)
2013-10-13 00:12:00 00:43:00 00:43:00 M1.7 S22E11 (1865)
2013-10-15 08:00:00 09:40:00 09:00:00 M1.1 S21W16 (1865)
2013-10-15 23:31:00 21:41:00 23:36:00 M1.3 S21W22 (1865)

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-12T17:40Z ~ 521 C 75/-9 26 SOHO, STEREO A and B
2013-10-13T01:25Z ~ 564 C -12/-46 55 SOHO, STEREO A and B

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-11T07:24Z ~780 C -106/-1 42 SOHO and STEREO B
2013-10-14T22:00Z ~545 C -95/10 35 SOHO, STEREO A

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-16T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-10-22T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the upcoming week. Active region 1865 has produced several CMEs and flares, and has the potential for more activity.

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.