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Weekly Summary for October 16, 2013 - October 22, 2013

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## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for October 16, 2013 - October 22, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-10-24T02:50:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-16T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-10-22T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131023-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at moderate levels during this analysis period. There were four C-type CMEs and four M-class flares (see lists below). The CME with ID 2013-10-17T04:39:00-CME-001 was predicted to impact Messenger (2013-10-18T02:23Z), Spitzer (2013-10-19T20:46Z) and STEREO B (2013-10-20T13:39Z) (see notification 20131017-AL-001). The two C-type CMEs with IDs 2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001 and 2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001 may impact the Earth at about 2013-10-25T07:34Z (plus minus 7 hours) and cause weak geomagnetic disturbance (Kp index 3-4) (see notification 20131023-AL-001).

Geomagnetic activity was at low levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4 for the analysis week.

While subsiding high speed solar wind stream caused elevated flux levels in the beginning of the period, the > 0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

No solar energetic particle events were observed during the analysis period.

Space weather impact:

Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been small this week.

## Events:
Flares (M class and above):
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2013-10-17 15:09:00 15:58:00 15:41:00 M1.2 S09W63 (1861)
2013-10-22 00:14:00 00:28:00 00:21:00 M1.0 N06E16 (1875)
2013-10-22 14:49:00 15:28:00 15:20:00 M1.0 N05E08 (1875)
2013-10-22 21:15:00 21:22:00 21:20:00 M4.2 N04W00

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-22T04:36Z ~780 C -06/49 48 STEREO A and B 2013-10-22T09:26Z
2013-10-22T22:00Z ~650 C 10/-20 55 SOHO (parameters are very approximate due to the lack of imagery)

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-17T04:39Z ~855 C -95/-11 49 STEREO A
2013-10-20T09:09Z ~615 C 40/0 30 SOHO and STEREO A

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-23T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-10-29T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the upcoming week. Active regions 1875 and 1877 with complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration have produced M-class flaring activity over the past few days and are expected to generate further activity. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at elevated levels also due to the (at least) two CMEs that are currently approaching the Earth (see above).

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.