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Weekly Summary for October 23, 2013 - October 29, 2013

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## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for October 23, 2013 - October 29, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-10-30T19:45:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-23T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-10-29T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131030-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at high levels during this analysis period. There were 24 M and 4 X class flares and numerous CMEs (see list below). The C type CME starting at 2013-10-25T15:12Z (ID 2013-10-25T15:12:00-CME-001, notification 20131025-AL-004) was associated with X2.1 flare (ID 2013-10-25T14:52:00-FLR-001, notification 20131025-AL-003). Based on heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center the CME was predicted to give a glancing blow to the Earth at around 2013-10-29T12:00. The interplanetary shock caused by possible passage of this CME was observed by ACE at about 2013-10-29T12:00. The O-type west limb CME (starting time 2013-10-28T14:12Z) and the C type Earhtward directed CME (starting time 2013-10-28T15:48Z) were modeled togheter with three other slower west limb CMEs (see notification ID 20131029-AL-001). Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME(s) may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about 2013-10-31T00:59Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).The simulation also indicates that the CME(s) may affect Mars and Messenger. The leading edge of the CME(s) will reach Mars at 2013-11-02T12:19Z, Messenger at 2013-10-29T07:19Z (plus minus 7 hours).

Geomagnetic activity was at low levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=3 for the analysis week. Although there was a number of CMSs with the Earth directed component in velocity, neither of them caused significant geomagnetic disturbance.

The > 0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

Solar energetic particle event was detected by STEREO B during the analysis period. The flux of 13-100 MeV protons exceeds 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-10-25T13:36Z (see notification 20131025-AL-002). This solar energetic particle event was associated with the X1.7 class flare peaked at 2013-10-25T08:01Z (see notification 20131025-AL-001). By the end of the analysis period the particle flux dropped to nominal levels.

Space weather impact:

Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been moderate or weak this week, specifically during the periods of SEP enhancement and geomagnetic disturbances.

## Events:

Flares (M class and above):
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2013-10-23 20:41:00 20:59:00 20:53:00 M2.7 N05W06 ( 1875 )
2013-10-23 23:33:00 23:47:00 23:43:00 M1.4 N07W06 ( 1875 )
2013-10-23 23:58:00 00:16:00 00:08:00 M3.1 N06W08 ( 1875 )
2013-10-24 00:21:00 00:35:00 00:30:00 M9.3 S09E10 ( 1877 )
2013-10-24 09:59:00 10:17:00 10:09:00 M2.5 N05W14 ( 1875 )
2013-10-24 10:30:00 10:37:00 10:33:00 M3.5 N06W12 ( 1875 )
2013-10-25 02:48:00 03:12:00 03:02:00 M2.9 S07E76 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 07:53:00 08:01:00 08:01:00 X1.7 S08E73 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 09:43:00 10:25:00 10:12:00 M1.0 S08E74 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 14:51:00 15:12:00 15:03:00 X2.1 S06E69 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 17:02:00 17:16:00 17:08:00 M1.3 S08E67 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 19:05:00 19:24:00 19:21:00 M2.3 S08E67 ( 1882 )
2013-10-25 20:54:00 20:58:00 20:58:00 M1.9 S08E64 ( 1882 )
2013-10-26 05:59:00 06:20:00 06:06:00 M2.3 S08E59 ( 1882 )
2013-10-26 09:17:00 09:48:00 09:37:00 M1.5 S10E58 ( 1882 )
2013-10-26 10:48:00 11:34:00 11:17:00 M1.8 S06E59 ( 1882 )
2013-10-26 19:22:00 19:31:00 19:27:00 M3.1 S12E87 ( 1884 )
2013-10-26 19:24:00 19:30:00 19:27:00 M3.1 S12E87 ( 1884 )
2013-10-26 19:49:00 19:58:00 19:53:00 M1.0 S08E51 ( 1882 )
2013-10-27 12:36:00 12:52:00 12:48:00 M3.5 S11E73 ( 1884 )
2013-10-28 01:41:00 02:12:00 02:03:00 X1.0 N05W72 ( 1875 )
2013-10-28 04:32:00 04:46:00 04:41:00 M5.1 N08W72 ( 1875 )
2013-10-28 11:32:00 12:39:00 11:53:00 M1.4 S14W46 ( 1874 )
2013-10-28 14:00:00 14:12:00 14:05:00 M2.8 N08W78 ( 1875 )
2013-10-28 14:46:00 15:04:00 15:01:00 M2.7 S08E27 ( 1882 )
2013-10-28 15:07:00 15:21:00 15:15:00 M4.4 S06E28 ( 1882 )
2013/10/28 20:48:00 21:02:00 20:57:00 M1.5 N07W83 ( 1875 )
2013-10-29 21:42:00 22:01:00 21:54:00 X2.3 N05W89 ( 1875 )

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-24T01:48Z ~ 1000 C -9/8 40 SOHO, STEREO A
2013-10-24T16:48Z ~ 537 C 55/45 62 SOHO, STEREO A
2013-10-25T15:12Z ~ 980 C -63/45 40 SOHO, STEREO B
2013-10-26T07:00Z ~ 636 C 65/6 36 SOHO, STEREO A
2013-10-26T13:09Z ~ 668 C 47/-59 30 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-27T03:48Z ~ 562 C 67/12 33 SOHO, STEREO A
2013-10-27T12:24Z ~ 656 C 60/2 38 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-27T18:12Z ~ 900 C 66/18 52 SOHO
2013-10-28T02:12Z ~ 625 C 65/7 60 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-28T15:48Z ~ 900 C -10/20 28 SOHO

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-10-26T11:40Z ~ 950 C -70/7 34 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-26T20:09Z ~ 820 C -70/7 46 SOHO, STEREO A
2013-10-27T10:12Z ~ 531 C 75/5 40 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-28T04:48Z ~ 750 C 73/15 55 SOHO, STEREO A,B
2013-10-28T12:12Z ~ 600 C 83/10 20 SOHO and STEREO A
2013-10-28T14:12Z ~1100 O 80/27 35 SOHO
2013-10-28T16:36Z ~ 525 C 70/6 15 SOHO
2013-10-28T21:16Z ~ 574 C 83/22 25 SOHO and STEREO A

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-10-30T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-11-05T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the upcoming week. Active regions 1882 and 1875 have produced numerous CMEs and flares, and have the potential for more activity.

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.