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Weekly Summary for November 6, 2013 - November 12, 2013

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## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for November 6, 2013 - November 12, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-11-13T23:27:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-11-06T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-11-12T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131113-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at moderate to high levels during this analysis period with two X-class flares and six M class flares (see the listing below). There were five C-type CMEs, and one R-type CME (see details below). The R-type CME with activity ID 2013-11-07T10:39:00-CME-001 was observed to arrive at STEREO B around 2013-11-08T13:3Z and was also predicted to arrive at Spitzer around 2013-11-08T16:38Z (see notification 20131107-AL-007). The CMEs during this period are found to be not geoeffective.

Geomagnetic activity was at low levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4 for the analysis week. Kp reached 4 during periods of 2013-11-07T09:00Z - 12:00Z (likely due to a sector boundary crossing followed by a weak coronal hole high speed stream), 2013-11-09T03:00Z - 15:00Z (likely due to a corotating interaction region followed by a coronal hole high speed stream), and 2013-11-11T00:00Z - 09:00Z (likely due to the coronal hole high speed stream).

The > 0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES (geosynchronous orbit) remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

The >10 MeV proton flux at GOES was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold during the period of 2013-11-07 to 2013-11-10. An initial enhancement was observed from approximately 2013-11-07T01:30Z to 2013-11-07T16:00Z, with a peak flux of 6.65 pfu at 2013-11-07T04:35Z. The initial enhancement was likely due to the M1.8 flare (and the associated CME with activity ID 2013-11-07T00:00:00-CME-001) that occurred at 2013-11-07T00:02Z from Region 1882 from beyond the west limb. Two further enhancements were observed from approximately 2013-11-08T12:00Z through the end of the period with a peak flux of 1.6 pfu at 2013-11-09T11:15Z likely associated with both X1.1 flares from Region 1890.

Solar energetic particle events were detected by STEREO A and STEREO B. The 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO A exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-11-07T11:16Z (see notification 20131107-AL-001), reached a peak value of 0.69 pfu/MeV at 2013-11-07T14:13Z and ended at 2013-11-08T08:00Z (decreasing back to below the 0.1 pfu/MeV threshold level). The 13-100 MeV proton flux at STEREO B exceeded 10^(-1) pfu/MeV starting at 2013-11-07T12:30Z (see notifications 20131107-AL-004, 20131107-AL-006), reached a peak value of 7.26 pfu/MeV at 2013-11-07T21:49Z and ended at 2013-11-08T21:49Z.

Space weather impact:
Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been small this week, except during the aforementioned periods of SEP enhancement.

## Events:

Flares (M class and above):
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2013-11-06 13:39:00 13:46:00 13:46:00 M3.8 S13E36 ( 1890 )
2013-11-06 23:44:00 00:14:00 00:02:00 M1.8 S11W88 ( 1882 )
2013-11-07 03:34:00 03:43:00 03:40:00 M2.3 S13E28 ( 1890 )
2013-11-07 14:15:00 14:31:00 14:25:00 M2.4 S13E22 ( 1890 )
2013-11-08 04:20:00 04:29:00 04:26:00 X1.1 S13E13 ( 1890 )
2013-11-08 09:22:00 09:31:00 09:28:00 M2.3 S17W29 ( 1891 )
2013-11-10 05:08:00 05:18:00 05:14:00 X1.1 S11W17 ( 1890 )
2013-11-11 11:01:00 11:30:00 11:18:00 M2.4 S17E74 ( 1897 )

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-11-07T16:25Z ~ 530 C -11/-10 27 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2012-11-08T04:24Z ~ 508 C -9/-29 27 STEREO A, and STEREO B

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-11-07T00:00Z ~ 950 C 95/-35 68 SOHO
2013-11-07T10:39Z ~2100 R -135/-13 92 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2012-11-08T04:24Z ~ 938 C 172/-33 58 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2013-11-09T17:12Z ~ 550 C 53/-6 17 SOHO and STEREO A
2013-11-10T05:39Z ~ 520 C -30/-56 30 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2013-11-11T21:48Z ~ 600 C 101/41 28 SOHO and STEREO A
2013-11-12T07:12Z ~ 650 C 79/-30 30 SOHO and STEREO A

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-11-13T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-11-19T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the upcoming week. Active region 1890 (S11W62) remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk (beta-gamma-delta), but moves closer to the western limb. Region 1897 (S21E44) has been active (beta-gamma). Both regions have potential for more activities.

## Notes:
SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

Weekly summary
http://1.usa.gov/HUue2U

Highlight of the two Nov 7 CMEs
http://1.usa.gov/172TYTB

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