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Weekly Summary November 13, 2013 - November 19, 2013

Body: 

## Message Type: Weekly Space Weather Summary Analysis for November 13, 2013 - November 19, 2013
##
## Message Issue Date: 2013-11-21T02:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage Begin Date: 2013-11-13T00:00:00Z
## Analysis Coverage End Date: 2013-11-19T23:59:59Z
## Message ID: 20131120-7D-001

## Summary:

Solar activity was at moderate levels during this analysis period with one X-class flare and five M-class flares (see the listing below). There were seven non-Earth directed C-type CMEs. The C-type CME ID 2013-11-19T10:39:00-CME-001 associated with the X-class flare (see notification 20131119-AL-001) is expected to impact Mars 2013-11-23, Messenger 2013-11-20 and STEREO B 2013-11-22 (see notification 20131119-AL-002).

Geomagnetic activity was at low levels with the Kp index (a measure of geomagnetic activity, ranging 0-9) <=4 for the analysis week. Kp was slightly elevated (up to Kp = 4) between periods of 2013-11-15 - 2013-11-16. The elevated level of activity was likely associated with passage of co-rotating interaction region in front of high-speed solar wind stream.

The > 0.8 MeV energetic electron flux detected at GOES (geosynchronous orbit) remained below the threshold level of 10^5 pfu for the entire analysis period.

The > 10 MeV proton flux at GOES was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold starting at about 2013-11-19T12:00Z. The enhancement is likely associated with the 2013-11-19 X-class flare and C-type western limb CME that was partially magnetically connected to the Earth. STEREO A and STEREO B energetic proton fluxes were at the background levels throughout the analysis period.

Space weather impact:
Space weather impacts on spacecraft are expected to have been small this week.

## Events:

Flares (M class and above):
Date Start Stop Peak Class Location
2013-11-13 14:57 15:41 15:20 M1.4 S20E46 ( 1897 )
2013-11-15 02:20 02:33 02:29 M1.0 N07E53 ( 1899 )
2013-11-16 04:47 04:57 04:53 M1.2 S18W29 ( 1900 )
2013-11-16 07:45 07:53 07:49 M1.6 S20W30 ( 1900 )
2013-11-17 05:06 05:13 05:10 M1.0 S19W41 ( 1900 )
2013-11-19 10:14 10:34 10:26 X1.0 S13W69 ( 1893 )

CMEs (> 500 km/s):
Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)

Non-Earth directed:
Starting time Speed (km/s) Type Direction (LON/LAT in HEEQ) Half-Angle width (degrees) Detecting spacecraft (real-time)
2013-11-12T07:12Z ~650 C 79/-30 30 SOHO and STEREO A
2013-11-15T00:12Z ~600 C 100/45 35 SOHO, STEREO B
2013-11-17T05:12Z ~948 C 85/-50 26 STEREO A and SOHO
2013-11-17T08:09Z ~657 C 64/-46 40 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2013-11-17T12:36Z ~550 C 152/36 22 SOHO, STEREO A, and STEREO B
2013-11-19T04:34Z ~780 C -172/-19 43 STEREO A, B and SOHO
2013-11-19T10:39Z ~910 C 82/-29 50 STEREO A and B

## Space Weather Outlook:
## Outlook Coverage Begin Date: 2013-11-20T00:00:00Z
## Outlook Coverage End Date: 2013-11-26T23:59:59Z

The solar and geomagnetic activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the upcoming week. Active region 1893 (S13W91) has a history of significant activity and may have potential for further activity.

## Notes:

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score

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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.