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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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CME Arrival Time Scoreboard

CME arrival time predictions from the research community
The CME Scoreboard (developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, CCMC) is a research-based forecasting methods validation activity which provides a central location for the community to:
        • submit their forecast in real-time
        • quickly view all forecasts at once in real-time
        • compare forecasting methods when the event has arrived

>>Click here to go to the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard<<

CME Propagation Models

This is a subset of space weather forecasting CME propagation models (see below for references) that can be selected as the CME arrival time "Prediction Method" in the CME arrival time Scoreboard. If you would like to register your prediction method, please send an email to M. Leila Mays or Yihua Zheng with your model/technique details. All prediction methods are welcome and all are encouraged to participate in this research activity.

CME shock arrival forecast:
Anemomilos (Tobiska, 2013)
CAT-PUMA (CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms) (Liu et al., 2018)
• Cone+HAF (Wang et al., 2018)
• EAM (Effective Acceleration Model) (Paouris et al., 2017)
• ELEvo (Ellipse Evolution) Model (Möstl et al., 2015)
• ELEvoHI (Ellipse Evolution HI) Model (Rollett et al., 2016, Amerstorfer et al., 2018)
• ESA (Empirical Shock Arrival) Model (Gopalswamy et al., 2001, 2005)
• H3DMHD (HAFv.3 +3DMHD) Model (Wu et al., 2011)
• HAFv.3 (Fry et al., 2001, 2003, Smith et al., 2009, McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2006)
• SAP (Sheath-accumulating Propagation) (Takahashi and Shibata, 2017)
• SARM (Shock ARrival Model) (Núñez et al., in preparation)
• SPM (Feng and Zhao, 2006) and SPM2 (Zhao and Feng, 2014)
• STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) (Dryer et al., 1984, 2004, Fry et al., 2001, McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2006)
WSA-ENLIL + Cone Model (Odstrcil et al., 2004)
Ballistic projection

CME arrival forecast:
BHV (Bothmer Heseman Venzmer) Model (Bothmer and Schwenn, 1998)
DBEM (Drag Based Ensemble Model) (Dumbovic et al., 2018)
DBM (Drag Based Model) (Vršnak et al., 2013)
DBM + ESWF (Drag Based Model + Empirical Solar wind Forecast) (Vršnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007; Rotter et al., 2015)
COMESEP automated system (CGFT, Geomag24) (Crosby et al., 2012)
• ECA (Empirical CME Arrival) Model (Gopalswamy et al., 2000, 2001)
• Expansion Speed Prediction Model (Schwenn, 2005)
WSA-ENLIL + Cone Model (Odstrcil et al., 2004)
HelTomo (Jackson et al., 2010, 2011)
HI J-map technique (Sheeley, 2008; Rouillard et al., 2008; Davis et al., 2009, 2011)
• TH (Tappin-Howard) Model (Tappin and Howard, 2009, Howard and Tappin, 2010)
Ballistic projection


Amerstorfer, T., Möstl, C., Hess, P., Temmer, M., Mays, M.L., Reiss, M.A., Lowrance, P., Bourdin, P.-A., 2018, Space Weather, 16, 784, doi:10.1029/2017SW001786

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Davis, C. J., et al. (2011), A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth‐directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010, Space Weather, 9, S01005, doi:10.1029/2010SW000620.

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Dryer, M., Z. Smith, C. D. Fry, W. Sun, C. S. Deehr, and S.-I. Akasofu (2004), Real-time shock arrival predictions during the ‘‘Halloween 2003 epoch,’’ Space Weather, 2, S09001, doi:10.1029/2004SW000087.

Dumbović, M.; Čalogović, J.; Vršnak, B.; Temmer, M.; Mays, M. L.; Veronig, A.; Piantschitsch, I. (2018), "The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation", ApJ, 854, 180. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaa66

Feng, X., X. Zhao (2006), A New Prediction Method for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks, Solar Physics, 238, 1, doi:10.1007/s11207-006-0185-3.

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Fry, C. D., M. Dryer, Z. Smith, W. Sun, C. S. Deehr, and S.-I. Akasofu (2003), Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A2), 1070, doi:10.1029/2002JA009474.

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Gopalswamy, N., A. Lara, P. K. Manoharan, and R. A. Howard (2005), An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks, Adv. Space Res., 36, 2289, 10.1016/j.asr.2004.07.014.

Jackson, B. V., P. P. Hick, M. M. Bisi, J. M. Clover, and A. Buffington (2010), Inclusion of In-Situ Velocity Measurements into the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography to Constrain and Better-Forecast Remote-Sensing Observations, Sol. Phys., 265, 245-256, doi:10.1007/s11207-010-9529-0

Jackson, B. V., P. P. Hick, A. Buffington, M. M. Bisi, J. M. Clover, M. Tokumaru, M. Kojima, and K. Fujiki (2011), Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) 3-D reconstruction of density enhancements behind interplanetary shocks: In-situ comparison near Earth and at STEREO, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr., 73, 1214-1227, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.11.023

Liu, Jiajia, Yudong Ye, Chenlong Shen, Yuming Wang, Robert Erdélyi (2018), A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA, accepted by the Astrophysical Journal. arXiv:1802.02803

McKenna-Lawlor, S., M. Dryer, M.D. Kartalev, Z. Smith, C.D. Fry, W. Sun, C.S. Deehr, K. Kecskemety, and K. Kudela (2006), Near Real-time Predictions of the Arrival at the Earth of Flare-generated Shocks during Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A11103, doi:10.1029/2005JA011162.

Möstl, C., T. Rollett, R. Frahm, Y. Liu, D. Long, R. Colaninno, M. Reiss, M. Temmer, C. Farrugia, A. Posner, M. Dumbović, M. Janvier, P. Démoulin, P. Boakes, A. Devos, E. Kraaikamp, M. L. Mays, B. Vršnak (2015), Strong coronal channeling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars, Nature Communications, 6:7135. 10.1038/ncomms8135

Núñez, M., T. Nieves‐Chinchilla, and A. Pulkkinen (2016), Prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data, Space Weather, 14, 544–562, , doi:10.1002/2016SW001361.

Tappin, S. J., and T. A. Howard (2009), Interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed in the heliosphere: 2. Model and data comparison, Space Sci. Rev., 147, 55–87, doi:10.1007/s11214-009-9550-5.

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Rotter, T., A. M. Veronig, M. Temmer, B. Vršnak (2015), Real-Time Solar Wind Prediction Based on SDO/AIA Coronal Hole Data, Solar Physics, 290, 5, doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0680-5.

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Sheeley, N. R., Jr., et al. (2008), Heliospheric Images of the solar wind at Earth, Astrophys. J., 675, 853–862, doi:10.1086/526422.

Smith, Z. K., M. Dryer, S.M.P. McKenna-Lawlor, C.D. Fry, C.S. Deehr, and W. Sun (2009), Operational validation of HAF’s predictions of interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth: Declining phase of Solar Cycle 23, J. Geophys. Res., 114(5), A05106, doi:10.1029/2008JA013836.

T. Takahashi and K. Shibata (2017), Sheath-accumulating Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 837, 2, doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa624c.

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